Internet Press Conference with Ilgar Mamedov
The internet press conference was held on June 26, 2012 in the Caucasus Journalists Network (www.caucasusjournalists.net).
Joint Internet press conferences with leading experts from different countries on the topical issues of the modern times are organized within the framework of the project, entitled Enhancing knowledge and understanding of ‘the other side’ by Armenians and Azerbaijani through Alternative and First-Hand Information This project, implemented by Region Research Center (Armenia) and the Institute for Peace and Democracy (Azerbaijan), is supported by the British Embassies in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Tarana Kyazimova, "Turan" news agency-www.contact.az (Azerbaijan)
-The mediators are playing different games. If the USA and partially France are interested in the resolution of the conflict at any cost because any solution complies with their interests, Russia is doing everything to guarantee its military presence in the South Caucasus region after the peaceful resolution has been achieved. In fact, this means that the Kremlin is using the Karabakh conflict to twist the arms of Azerbaijan. All the rest is merely derived from this situation.
2.Recently a perspective has started to circulate among the Armenian public on the ethnical disunity of Azerbaijan. That is to say, in case of a war the ethnic minorities will not fight. How persuasive are such statements and is there a problem of ethnic separatism in Azerbaijan?
-Any society, just as the Armenian one, too, circulates many perspectives, which are far from reality. There is no serious collection of facts which proves this view. We do have “problematic” regions in terms of military draft if we consider the issue in relation to the ethnic composition of the country. And the wounded on the front line are often the representatives of these very ethnic minorities. But even if the view you mentioned were true, the population in Azerbaijan is not twice but three times more than that in Armenia, and in any case the country can arm many times more soldiers than the opponent.
3.What doesn’t the Armenian society have to accept the offer of Azerbaijan in terms of the provision of an autonomy to Karabakh within Azerbaijan? Can we consider such an offer unrealistic, just as it is assured to be by the official Yerevan?
Answer-
Anna Bartkulashvili, freelance journalist (Azerbaijan)
1.What do you think with regard to the statement made by the Deputy of the Azerbaijani Parliament Aydin Mirzazade, who said that “one of the essential factors for the resolution of the Karabakh problem, existent in the Azerbaijani society is the position held by the neighboring Islamic Republic of Iran?”
Answer-
2.Is Russia a party or a mediator in the resolution of the Karabakh issue? Should we expect Russia to display objectivity in this issue?
Answer-
Armen Minasyan, panorama.am (Armenia)
-Just like Armenia, Azerbaijan leaves much to be desired in terms of the situation with democratic freedoms in the country. It is true that in the last year or two under the heavy debt burden the authorities of Armenia have had to play the democracy game more actively. While in our country, that is experiencing an economic upsurge, nothing is changing. Instead, if they shoot a dozen oppositionists in Armenia every decade in order to maintain the “appropriate” atmosphere of fear in the society, the Azerbaijani authorities prefer to make up extensively invented criminal cases and charge activists. In short, there is nothing good in either absolute or relative terms.
Anna Bartkulashvili, freelance journalist (Azerbaijan)
Natig Javadli, "Bizim Yol" newspaper-www.bizimyol.az (Azerbaijan)
1.Hello, Mr. Mamedov. Is it possible to consider an external, particularly, the Russian factor in the breaches of the ceasefire agreement in the conflict zone?
-Only the Kremlin has reasons to build up the tension. One of them is the Gabala radar station, with regard to which Baku has requested a just attitude. Russia is short of time, the rent period will be up in a few months, and it would like to clarify things quickly. The second reason is the circumstance which became known during Hillary Clinton's visit to the region, regarding the willingness of the USA to take over the Kremlin's dominant position in mediation, which they readily gave away to ex-President Medvedev. Now they would like to prove their efficiency against the failure of Medvedev's mission. That is why the Kremlin, building up the tension along the front line, wants to show that even if it failed to bring the peace closer, it was the Kremlin who could preserve the situation calm. The third reason is that the West is preparing a quick strike at Syria, something that Russia will give the UN mandate for, however, Russia would have liked to use it as a precedent to invade Georgia and/or Azerbaijan. The fourth reason is that the decision on the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline is at a decisive stage, and a positive dialogue has been established with Turkmenistan, that is why they "need to" raise the risk level in relation to the gas pipeline. By the way, this is how we can explain the recent provocation at the border between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. In both Ashkhabad and Baku the elite is not homogeneous, and it seems that there too there are forces, who serve the Kremlin's interests. Finally, the buildup of tension on the immediate border between the Republic of Armenia and the Azerbaijan Republic, rather than in the occupied Azerbaijani territory is handy to the Kremlin, since CSTO or Russia would not quite have a right to interfere. The first collisions of this wave happened quite far from the occupied territories and close to the borders of the two states, common with Georgia.
2.Can the civil society play its naturally positive role in the resolution of the conflict? If yes, then how?
-It plays only an auxiliary role. The political process plays a decisive role. If politicians agree, the civil society will consolidate the arrangements. By itself, the civil society is unable to lead to peace.
Armen Minasyan, panorama.am (Armenia)
1.Do the authorities interfere with the operation of NGOs in the country? What do you think the influence of NGOs on the domestic political situation in Azerbaijan is?
Answer-
2.Islamic radicals have become active in Azerbaijan recently: they are well-organized and act secretly. Is the Islamic threat a serious challenge for Azerbaijan, taking into consideration that the arrests of theologists and activists of the Islamic Party who were able to take thousands of people into the streets in a few hours to support wearing hijab continue?
-The secular foundations of Azerbaijan should not be overlooked. They are extremely firm. There exists no threat of a large-scale and real political wave, to be brought about by religious figures.
Natig Javadli, "Bizim Yol" newspaper-www.bizimyol.az
Answer-
1.Hello! In June there was another case of a breach of the ceasefire regime in the zone of occupied Azerbaijani lands. Each party officially reproached the other for the breach. What was the renewal of hostilities in the conflict zone conditioned by and which party (country) benefited from it?
-It is not in Azerbaijan's interests to rapidly renew hostilities. Because currently we are on the peak of oil extraction and we are still going to be that high for quite a time. Currently, we are at a time of the accumulation of wealth and building up the military and political capacities of the country. On the contrary, it will be more beneficial to Armenia, depressed by the growing lag, to renew the war now, than later. If Yerevan receives real guarantees of Russia's involvement, it will renew the war even tomorrow.
2.Can the current aggravation of the situation along the contact line between the Armenian and Azerbaijani troops lead to a large-scale warfare?
1.How would you comment on the fact of a complete lack of opposition in the Azerbaijani Parliament? In the given context how do you see the process of a further buildup of a democratic society in the country?
2.Do you think the policy of the official Baku has changed to tolerate dissent? Do you think there are political prisoners in Azerbaijan at the moment?
-Time for evaluations is long over. It is necessary to get out of the deep pitch of lawlessness, corruption and restriction of freedoms, which Aliyev’s regime has pushed the country into.
Artak Barseghyan, Public Radio of Armenia-www.armradio.am (Armenia)
1.How do you assess the potential for the development of a civil society in Azerbaijan and the activation of a dialogue between non-governmental organizations in Armenia and Azerbaijan?
-I assess it as normal. It is impossible to forbid such things. Besides, the youth should be first of all prepared for peace, which however, does not mean that the resolution of the conflict through military operations is excluded from the arsenal of the nations. For example, when Argentina occupied the Falkland Islands, Great Britain preferred the resolution through military operations to the longer route of negotiations. When Muslim fighters, based in Afghanistan, attacked New York, the US Army immediately struck to revenge. Now, when Iran is only alleged to prepare a nuclear bomb, Israel keeps talking of the possibility of a preventive military attack. Unfortunately, the longer the Azerbaijani lands remain occupied, the greater the probability of a war becomes.
3.How effective do you think the bellicose rhetoric of the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev is in the context of the negotiations process over Nagorno Karabakh and in the light of the “patriotic education” of the younger generation?
-In contrast to the topics on domestic policy, where Ilham Aliyev sounds unconvincing, unserious and incompetent much more frequently, his rhetoric on the topic of the Karabakh conflict mostly meets the expectations, yearnings and plans of the Azerbaijani public. The Azerbaijani territories will be liberated from military occupation, and this issue is truly the main priority of our country. Our movement – the REAL – in its turn, is trying to create an atmosphere in the society in which the possibility for the manipulation of the topic of the conflict to the political benefit of the regime would be minimized. All political leaders of all times and nations have exercised such manipulations.
Sona Kyurkchyan, "Hetq" online newspaper-www.hetq.am (Armenia)
1.Hello, Mr. Mamedov! What do you think about the two main problems (in domestic and foreign policies) in Azerbaijan and Armenia are? How interconnected are they?
-The main foreign policy issue for Azerbaijan is the continuing military occupation of our territories by Armenia/Russia. The main domestic policy issue is the extreme lack of freedoms against the background of raging corruption. For Armenia the main foreign policy issue is the factual loss of sovereignty that is turning the country into a province of the Russian Federation. And inside the country a demographic catastrophe is deepening. Just like all the other problems in our countries, these issues are interconnected, but the complex of these relations is too complicated to be explained within a brief answer.
2.How is the toughening of the domestic situation in your country reflected on the priorities in the Karabakh conflict, and in general, do you think there is a relation between the internal political situation in the country and the situation on the frontline and that at the table of negotiations?
Good afternoon. Mr. Mamedov. I have three questions to you:
1. The Azerbaijani military shot at a kindergarten in Tavush region, Armenia. This is already beyond the zone of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, this is away from the contact line, this is a state border. Aggression by one state against the other, even if the two have some conflicts, is condemned by common sense. How can you explain or perhaps substantiate these actions of the Azerbaijani party?
2. Until now no single representative of the Azerbaijani party has answered a trivial question. And I hope you will be the one to succeed. Azerbaijan is not practicing what it is preaching. It announces of its intention to undertake measures to strengthen confidence between the parties, but violates the ceasefire. It signs the basic principles on the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, but breaks the armistice it initiated. How can Azerbaijan be treated with a little bit of confidence after all this?
3. Ilham Aliyev’s statement that every Armenian person is an enemy to Azerbaijan is a manifestation of racism, first and foremost. Why doesn’t the Azerbaijani intelligentsia, who is advocating democratic and liberal values, condemn the head of the state who acts as a mini-Hitler of the 21st century with an anti-Armenian bias?
-If we are to compete with the propaganda methods deployed to present facts, I can then tell you how Armenian snipers shoot at Azerbaijani children, and even killed a young boy last spring. I do not see any question here, only propagandistic rubbish, hence there is nothing to answer.
Rauf Mirkadirov, "Zerkalo" newspaper-www.zerkalo.az (Azerbaijan)
-Dear Rauf, I am afraid I will have to disappoint you, but the notion of "the limits for a compromise" is very vague. Deliberating on the ways of resolution, I do not confine myself with rigid and formal frames, and I prefer to look at the expected dynamic process of achievements or losses for Azerbaijan. And this process is always related to the history. The realia that were important in the 1990s are not always topical today. The aim of the resolution is to ensure conditions for the existence of the Azerbaijani state where, already confident in our security, we could focus on the role of our country in the progress of the human kind and could settle an uninterrupted, effective and well-secured regime of goods exchange and passenger traffic from Turkey, ensure the highly patriotic spirit of our people, basing it on the facts of the resolution without distorting and mythologizing history.
2.Ilagr, if I am not mistaken, you had to work in the International Crisis Group with Mr. Zurabyan who is the head of the Armenian National Congress faction in the Armenian Parliament. How would you characterize Mr. Zorabyan as a politician, also from the perspective of his ability to make and maintain arrangements?
-That was long, at least some 7 years ago. Zurabyan has made a very good impression. Should we live in the same town, we might end up being friends. On the whole, Azerbaijan will find it very easy to make arrangements with Armenia, as soon as we are both left alone by the Kremlin, independent of who at the moment will be in power in Yerevan.
3.I would like to learn your opinion on the following: what is more likely for Azerbaijan today – a so-called “velvet revolution” or a blind national riot?
-We have started to gradually become a large-scale force only this year. Before that REAL as an entity did not even assume that it would have a large-scale participation in political processes. The rapidness of the transition brings about certain objective difficulties due to the environment. Probably, we sometimes do things wrongly, too. But today REAL is the only political organization that is expanding and is winning over supporters, rather than losing them. As we have made it clear from the very beginning, the dynamics of the development of our organization is harmonized with an essential interim objective – the Parliamentary elections of 2015.
Gagik Baghdasaryan, "News Armenia" news agency-www.newsarmenia.am (Armenia)
-This is neither the first nor the last aggravation of the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations. This time even there was no need to shoot; in the course of our 20-year-old independence the situation would occasionally get much worse than it did this time. Unfortunately, Tehran will from time to time keep checking how firm Azerbaijan is. And from our side, we will not give up the opportunity of appealing to the 20 million Azerbaijanis, residing in Iran, if the provocations continue. Currently, if we are to follow the old and good tradition, Baku and Tehran will start to make friends as if nothing happened.
2.Mr. Mamedov, do you expect an aggravation of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan in case the negotiations over Gabala fail?
-We expect this and we are ready for it. Our movement requested the Kremlin to efficiently assist in the withdrawal of the occupational forces of the Republic of Armenia from at least 4 Azerbaijani regions bordering with Iran. We also calculated the real cost of the station rental which instead of 7 million dollars should equal 200 million USD annually. Then, the government in fact supported our estimate and quoted a sum of 300 millions. Certainly, we can agree on a price, but the main demand of ours is political. And it should be met.
3.Can the activity of Islamists in the Near East impact on the situation in Azerbaijan?
