Internet Press Conference with Sabine Freizer

Extradition and Clemency of Ramil Safarov, the Suspension of Diplomatic Relations Between Armenia and Hungary and the Possible Consequences

Joint Internet press conferences with leading experts from different countries on the topical issues of the modern times are organized within the framework of the project, entitled "Enhancing knowledge and understanding of ‘the other side’ by Armenians and Azerbaijani through Alternative and First-Hand Information". This project, implemented by Region Research Center (Armenia) and the Institute for Peace and Democracy (Azerbaijan), is supported by the British Embassies in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Sona Kyurkchyan, "Hetq" online newspaper-www.hetq.am (Armenia)

1.Do you think that the reaction of the European structures (for example, that of the EU) was adequate to this scandal from the perspective of its probable consequences?

-Yes, I believe that it was very positive to quickly get a statement from the EU and some EU countries like France. None of these countries are going to sanction Azerbaijan formally, but it is clear that the Safarov case has undermined Azerbaijan’s image abroad.

2.Why do you think the USA reacted to the situations much more speedily than Russia? Why isn’t NATO speaking about this at all?

-I don’t think that there was a political reason for the delay in the Russian statement. It came out on Monday, after the weekend…NATO does not make political statements as readily as the EU and individual states do.

Artak Barseghyan, Public Radio of Armenia-www.armradio.am (Armenia)

1.What do you think the remission and the factual acquittal of the murderer R. Safarov by the authorities of Azerbaijan are conditioned at this stage in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?

Answer-

2.How probable is the renewal of hostilities by Azerbaijan before the Presidential elections to be held in this country in 2013?

-The amnesty and promotion of Ramil Safarov is a serious blow to confidence building and trust between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is already at an extremely low level. Mr.Safarov was tried and sentenced in a court of law to life imprisonment and though his extradition back to Azerbaijan could be deemed understandable, his amnesty and promotion were not.

Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are already extremely tense. The Minsk Group negotiations on basic principle document, which is supported by the US, EU and Russia, have for all intents and purposes reached a dead-end. The number of incidents along the line of contact is increasing and June 2012 was the deadliest month in a long time with at least 10 killed soldiers. Azerbaijan doubled its military budget in 2011 and is increasing it again significantly this year, while Armenia also takes steps to strengthen its capabilities. Both in Baku and Yerevan, there is a growing public impression that the time to return to war, to defeat the enemy, permanently has come. Leadership on both sides is threatening to start fighting again and their communities increasingly appear to support this opinion.

Gagik Baghdasaryan, "News Armenia" news agency-www.newsarmenia.am (Armenia)

1.Don’t you think that the Ramil Safarov’s remission and factual “sacralization” is an argument that proves the impossibility of Nagorno Karabakh being as a part of Azerbaijan with any status. In other words, don’t you think that the hypothetical restoration of former borders of Soviet Azerbaijan will bear a mortal threat to Karabakh population?

-Of course the Safarov case seriously undermines trust between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is already very low.

The Safarov pardon, which has been criricized by the US, Russia and the EU, is particulary unnerving, because it sends the message that if something happens to an activist participating in a confidence buiding meeting, the perpetrator of that crime will be left unpunished. Very few people in Armenia and Azerbaijan have the courage and independence needed to take part in dialogues efforts –this pardon is in effect a direct attack on them and their efforts. Yet confidence building and trust is needed if the Azerbaijani and Armenian leadership are going to find the political will to return to the negotiations table and reach a compromise.

2.What corrections do you think will be introduced into the negotiations process after the scandal around Safarov?

-No real changes likely.

Armen Minasyan, panorama.am (Armenia)

1.How can you assess the bargain between the authorities in Hungary and Azerbaijan with regard to Ramil Safarov’s extradition and his instantaneous acquittal and promotion to a higher rank?

Answer-

2.Do you agree that this demarche by Azerbaijan negates the former rhetoric of the Azerbaijani side on the peaceful coexistence with the Artsakh population and automatically nullifies Azerbaijan’s demands for the return of Azerbaijani refugees and IDPs to the former areas of their residence before the determination of Nagorno Karabakh’s status?

Answer-

Anjela Khachatryan, 1in.am (Armenia)

1.After Ramil Safarov’s remission hasn’t yet time come to change the format of karabkh negotiations, in particular hasn’t yet time come for Nagorno Karabakh to act as a full member in the negotiation process?

-I think that even in Azerbaijan there is an acceptance that if the agreement on basis principles is ever signed and the sides enter technical talks to reach a comprehensive agreement, Nagorno-Karabakh will be included.The question is how do we get there? If the OSCE Minsk group has failed what could be a more effective format?

2.Can the Nagorno Karabakh Republic exist within the frames of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan in case this country acquits and encourages the murder of an Armenian officer who was taking part in a seminar organized by NATO, that is to say of someone who was not killed on the front line?

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Rauf Mirkadirov, "Zerkalo" newspaper-www.zerkalo.az (Azerbaijan)

1.Isn’t the situation with Ramil Safarov another vivid proof of the failure of the OSCE Minsk group as a format for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict? For had the official Baku at least minimum confidence in the probability of any progress in resolution of the conflict, we would hardly ever witness such a situation today.

-Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are already extremely tense. The Minsk Group negotiations on basic principle document, which is supported by the US, EU and Russia, have for all intents and purposes reached a dead-end. The number of incidents along the line of contact is increasing and June 2012 was the deadliest month in a long time with at least 10 killed soldiers. Azerbaijan doubled its military budget in 201 and is increasing it again significantly this year, while Armenia also takes steps to strengthen its capabilities. Both in Baku and Yerevan, there is a growing public impression that the time to return to war, to defeat the enemy, permanently has come. Leadership on both sides is threatening to start fighting again and their communities increasingly appear to support this opinion. I don’t think that many in Baku believe anymore that the talks, as they are, will bring a resolution to the conflict.

2.Can we say that peaceful negotiations will be interrupted for at least some time and in the public format. We can hardly expect the official Yerevan to come down to demonstratively sitting back at table of negotiations in the near future? What will happen next?

-The Safarov pardon, which has been criticized by the US, Russia and the EU, is particularly unnerving, because it sends the message that if something happens to an activist participating in a confidence building meeting, the perpetrator of that crime will be left unpunished. Very few people in Armenia and Azerbaijan have the courage and independence needed to take part in dialogues efforts –this pardon is in effect a direct attack on them and their efforts. Yet confidence building and trust is needed if the Azerbaijani and Armenian leadership are going to find the political will to return to the negotiations table and reach a compromise.

The chance of a new war continues to grow and to reverse this dangerous slide Azerbaijan and Armenia need to realize that their basic state interests will be better served with a peace agreement than with a return to hostilities. A new war, unlikely to be short or quick, but could extend for years and have regional implications, this is not what the South Caucasus needs when the broader region is already in dangerous turmoil. The main victims of this conflict, the 600.000 Azerbaijanis from Nagorno-Karabakh and the occupied territories, have a real chance to return to their homes if the basic principles agreement is agreed by the sides, this real opportunity should not be lost for uncertain gains.

3.Do you think the Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk group who have geopolitical interests in the region and who are currently accusing the official Baku bear any responsibility for the acute aggravation of the situation? For tying the liberation of the occupied territories around Nagorno Karabakh with the determination of the legal status of Nagorno Karabakh itself they have brought the negotiation into an deadlock themselves…

-I blame first and foremost the local parties for not having the political courage to agree to the basic principles.

Natig Javadli, "Bizim Yol" newspaper-www.bizimyol.az (Azerbaijan)

1.Don’t you think that the maximal politicization of the legal procedure with regard to Ramil Safarov’s release and the desire to turn this against Azerbaijan are used to bring the negotiations between Baku and Yerevan into a deadlock?

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2.Why don’t international non-governmental organizations interfere with the OSCE Minsk Group to accelerate the resolution of the conflict? Why not?

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3.The attention focused only on Ramil Safarov has made to forget of thousands of Azerbaijani prisoners of war, who are in Armenia. Let’s bear in mind that there is no single Armenian in Azerbaijan. Why don’t international organizations act in relation with the Azerbaijani prisoners of war who are now in Armenia?

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Aydin Kerimov, "Novoye Vremya" newspaper-www.novoye-vremya.com (Azerbaijan)

1.Do you think Ramil Safarov’s extradition from Hungary to Azerbaijan complied with international norms?

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2.What do you think of the acquittal by the president of Azerbaijan?

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Tarana Kyaziomova, "Turan" news agency-www.contact.az (Azerbaijan)

1.How will Ramil Safarov’s extradition affect the negotiation process over Karabakh resolution?

-The amnesty of Ramil Safarov is a serious blow to confidence building and trust between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is already at an extremely low level. Mr.Safarov was tried and sentenced in a court of law to life imprisonment and though his extradition back to Azerbaijan could be deemed understandable, his amnesty and promotion were not.

Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are already extremely tense. The Minsk Group negotiations on basic principle document, which is supported by the US, EU and Russia, have for all intents and purposes reached a dead-end. The number of incidents along the line of contact is increasing and June 2012 was the deadliest month in a long time with at least 10 killed soldiers. Azerbaijan doubled its military budget in 201 and is increasing it again significantly this year, while Armenia also takes steps to strengthen its capabilities. Both in Baku and Yerevan, there is a growing public impression that the time to return to war, to defeat the enemy, permanently has come. Leadership on both sides is threatening to start fighting again and their communities increasingly appear to support this opinion. The Safarov pardon will only increase this impression.

2.What measures may the Armenian side undertake in response to Safarov’s remission? (How do you assess the latest statement made by Sezh Sargsyan at the session of the Security Council of Armenia,that took place right after Ramil Safarov’s remission?)

Answer-