Internet Press Conference with Arastun Orujlu

 

 

 

 

-I think that this statement was not and could not be made off cuff, or uncoordinated with the higher political elite of the country, since the political system and its rules totally deny any initiative. That is why it is quite possible to assume that these were the messages of the official Baku, and they were addressed not only to the official Yerevan, but also to all the participants of the process, so to say. And perhaps this was announced aiming to compensate the failure of the US’s attempts to organize the meeting of the Presidents of the 2 countries, that is to say the Azerbaijani authorities aimed to demonstrate that they are in fact ready for a dialogue, by the way, beyond the framework of issues that have been traditionally discussed. 

 

 

-I do not think so. Rather, this was an individual decision, and I have already mentioned some of the reasons for this unexpected statement. 

 

 

-I think there will be no reaction, because in fact such a proposal somehow “disarms” Yerevan, which have recently and contrarily been speaking in a much harsher tone, including talks on the possibility of making preventive strikes in case of the “military accumulation” (the notion “accumulation” is quite a relative one). It will not be very easy for the official Yerevan to abruptly change its rhetoric.

 

 

-Definitely negative, but not quite obligatorily will it be expressed in statements or any other verbal expressions. Moscow does not like it when someone tries to intrude into its traditional markets and especially when this is done by Azerbaijan. Even more so in the case with Armenia when “gas discussions” may be evaluated as more than economic cooperation.

 

 

-The energy factor, when taken separately, cannot be feasible in the given case, but it can be a factor that will initiate the normalization of relations regarding broader issues in bilateral relations, including closer and pragmatic cooperation in the discussion of issues on achieving agreement over Karabakh. But so far the Karabakh issue is a key factor not only in the relations between the two countries. It is exploited as a major and tested instrument of internal and foreign policies. I think it is too early to think of any reviews in positions and approaches.  

 

 

 

-I have answered this question already. I think this was coordinated with the higher administration in the country. 

 

 

-This question was also answered above. 

 

 

-As far as I know, there has been no reaction so far, but it should be there, because such an offer has been expressed for the first time ever, and the mediators must show their attitude to it. Moreover, the calls to start economic relations came from these countries in the first place, however in quite varied forms. 

 

 

 

-Some compromise will be found, and the parties will sit at the table of negotiations: as the most recent events showed that stability in any country, including Turkey, cannot be preserved through the oppression of political opponents. This will not have any impact on Azerbaijan, because with all the other factors that bring us together, the political systems are quite different.

 

 

-Personally, I am not very optimistic in this regard. 

 

 

-The matter of our discussion is already the new offer and the more such initiatives are, the more chances there will be to find a way out of the current dead-end situation. Naturally, this will take place only in condition there are an adequate reaction and a bilateral peaceful initiative, requiring the political will of both parties.  

 

 

 

-This may be evaluated as the co-chairing countries’ concern with the lack of any progress in the peaceful regulation process, as well as a call to the parties of the conflict to renounce the escalation of the conflict in the region.

 

 

-I think they are primarily internal, since recently the ruling party began to oust the secular traditions of Kemalism too actively, and was mistaken in its calculations of the internal layout, especially after the mass arrests from among the high ranking military. The lack of any public reaction to these arrests stimulated the miscalculations in the continuation of their own policy within the ruling circles in Turkey. 

 

 

-I have already answered this question. 

 

 

 

-I think that such abrupt and provocative announcements are able to bring about the adequate reaction of the Azerbaijani side, which will not contribute to the maintenance of peace in the region. 

 

 

-I have heard that both sides are doing it, even though two years ago they reacted positively to such an appeal, made by the Chairman of the OCSE, however, no concrete steps were undertaken. 

 

 

-I have expressed my opinion on this fact, and it was negative. Unfortunately, heroization of crimes is still a commodity that is highly demanded in both societies. Definitely, it is a pity that Aliyev did it, but in this respect the stories of the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan told to the American investigator Thomas De Waal on how he participated in the killings in Khojalu do not evoke delight. 

 

 

-The situation is complicated and quite disputable, regarding Aliyev’s third term in office, and today it is quite difficult to forecast anything. However, the increased pressure put on the opposition and the civil society by the power gives us grounds to assume that the situation is even more complicated than we think. Personally I have suspicions that there are serious disagreements at the international level and this is what makes the Azerbaijani authorities practice even more arbitrary rule inside the country.  

 

 

 

-Undoubtedly so, but first of all both countries need to go through profound democratic reforms and form legitimate power structures. Only democratically elected authorities are capable of taking resolute steps towards the settlement of the conflict.

 

 

-I do not believe so; I have already covered this matter above. 

 

 

 

-I don’t think so. There are much fewer opportunities for that in Azerbaijan than there were in Georgia. The power is richer than everyone else, and actually keeps all the spheres of socio-political life in the country under a very strict control. This is impossible, given all the restrictions of freedom and right, that are currently present in Azerbaijan.

 

 

-I think this is a means of pressure, applied by the Kremlin on Baku, aiming to get a more pliable and obedient behavior from the latter. Nothing more.

 

 

-Rustam Ibrahimbekov is not yet the joint candidate. 

 

 

-The official Baku has very sensitive relations with Erdogan’s administration. Realizing that the miscalculated reaction in the given case may destroy the fragile tone of relations, the Azerbaijani authorities prefer to keep silent. Besides, against the multiple problems, existent in the fields of rights and freedoms in Azerbaijan, the official Baku I think does not have a moral right for any reaction. 

 

 

-There will be changes of principle while the official Tehran perceives the fact of the existence of an independent Azerbaijani state as a threat to its own national security.

 

 

 

-The question is repeated.  

 

 

-It will definitely be positive, if the parties have sufficient political will to settle their economic relations, but I think the conditions for such relations have not matured yet. For this purpose, it is necessary to form a democratically elected power in both countries. And this is not yet visible, unfortunately.